Adeel Khamisa, Oculus Info, adeel.khamisa@gmail.com
Rob Harper, Oculus Info, rharper@oculusinfo.com
Tom Kapler, Oculus Info, tkapler@oculusinfo.com
GeoTime Configurable Spaces: The main tool we used to solve this challenge was GeoTime v2.6, released in 2008 by Oculus Info. GeoTime supports the visualization and analysis of entities and events over time and geography. Events are represented within an X,Y,T coordinate space, in which the X,Y plane shows geographic space and the vertical axis represents time. Entity movements, event, relationships, and interactions over time within a spatial context can be easily seen and understood. Events animate through this 3-D space as the time is played through. For analysts, GeoTime's combined spatiotemporal display amplifies the concurrent cognition of entity relationships and behaviors in space and time. Analysts can see the who and what in the where and when. GeoTime includes keyword search, link analysis, imagery display, geometry display, annotation and numerous other analytical functions. [See Kapler, T., R. Eccles, R. Harper, W. Wright, Configurable Spaces: Temporal Analysis in Diagrammatic Contexts, Accepted for IEEE VAST 2008 Conference.]
The first step was to prepare the data in Excel and import it into GeoTime Configurable Spaces (GT Config Spaces). Callers were arranged in a circular layout to visually display social connections; directionality of calls and temporal patterns.
Ferdinando Catalano's Caller ID, 200, and role as leader was provided by the challenge question along with information about his direct callers. Using the Link analysis in GT Config Spaces, an ego-centric network was built around Ferdinando Catalano. Within one degree, callers 1,2,3,5,97 and 137 seem important. (Figure 1). Visualizing their call patterns revealed time periods highlighted in Figure 2: Equilibrium, Silence and Reorganization.
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Figure1: An egocentric network built around caller ID reveals callers 1,2,3,5,97 and 137 and the number of calls they share with caller ID 200 |
Figure2: Call patterns are used to distinguish three periods of time: Equilibrium, Silence and Reorganization as labeled above in both the 3d and 2d views. |
During the Equilibrium period (June 1st to 7th), calls between network members are frequent, revealing patterns which can be used to identify them.
From the challenge question, Estaban Catalano has the most calls with Ferdinando Catalano. Using the ego-centric network, we can select all the calls between Ferdinando and other caller IDs. Ferdinado has 47 calls. 14 are with Caller ID 5, which is more than any other ID. Estaban Catalano is hypothesized to be Caller ID 5 (Figure 1).
David Vidro is a high level coordinator. He would likely have a high number of calls and speak to the Catalano brothers (ID 5). From Figure 3 we can see that Caller ID 1 fulfills both conditions. We infer this is David Vidro.
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Figure3: A high level coordinator like David Vidro would make a lot of calls and speak to both Estaban and Ferdinando Catalano |
Juan and Jorge Vidro could be callers 97, 137, 2 and/or 3. Caller ID's 2 and 3 speak to Ferdinando Catalano, Estaban Catalano during the Equilibrium period. They share the same drop in the number of calls in the period of Silence, where as number 97 and 137 are not frequent callers in the initial period (Figure 2). Caller ID's 2 and 3 are Juan and Jorge Vidro; however, there is no information in the challenge available to distinguish the two.
The link analysis was expanded to show all other caller ID's that may not speak directly to Ferdinando Catalano. This generated an image of the social network in GT Config Spaces. Caller ID 107 was revealed to be central because he spoke to Estaban and David (Figure 4)
The provided map of Isle Del Seuno was georeferenced and imported into GT ConfigSpaces. Callers were assigned geocoordinates based on the cell phone tower they called from. Calls made by the same user from different towers were recorded as movements between those towers. GT ConfigSpaces showed these movements with a line, where the slope of the line is the interpolated time/distance location. Receiving calls display as triangles, and outgoing calls are circles.
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Figure 4: Caller ID's identified by coloured diamonds encircle focal actors 1, 2, 3,5, 200 and 107 in the Equilibrium Period |
Figure 5: Call patterns and movement between the focal actors in the Equilibrium period suggest that a central meeting point is in the vicinity of tower 29 |
During the Silent period (June 8th) the main caller ID's appear to stop calling during this period, or switch their cell phones acquiring new ID's. The regular meeting activity at Tower 29 begins to drop off suggesting that a coordinating period is coming to an end (Figure 5).
The Reorganization Period (June 9th - 10th) is characterized by a change in the main caller ID's. ID 200 only communicates with callers 97 and 137. Also caller ID 107 only communicates with caller ID's 306 and 309, taking Estaban Catalano (ID 5) and David Vidros (ID 1) place. Aligning the movement and call patterns of 306 and 309 in the Silent and Reorganization period shows that caller 306 is likely caller 5, Estaban Catalano (Figure 6) and caller 309 is likely caller 1, David Vidro (Figure 8). Movements of Estaban and David change suggesting that they are moving around the island quite a bit. In combination with the need to change cell phones, this suggests the network is spreading and more meetings may be occurring away from cell tower 29.
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Figure 6: Caller ID 306 appears after caller ID 5 (Estaban Catalano) decreases his calls. 306 appears at the last known position of caller 5 and continues a similar movement before a variation. |
Figure 7: Caller ID 309 appears after caller ID 1 (David Vidro) decreases his calls. Caller ID 1 makes the most calls during the Equilibrium period, 309 makes the most calls in the subsequent periods. Both caller ID's appear at the same location around the same time. |
Figure 4 shows that 107 and 200 don't speak to each other but are central to a network; because they speak to Estaban and David Vidro. Viewing their location and movement it is quite possible that 107 and 200 are both Ferdinando Catalano. Further supporting evidence is that they both start calling new ID numbers at the same time. 107 seems to be Ferdinando's new ID to speak to David and Estaban, and 200 is Ferdinando's number to speak with 137 and 97. After the "Silence" period, Caller IDs 1,2,3 and 5 make calls again, but not with at the same frequency.
If Ferdinando Catalano is 107 and 200, and uses ID 107 to speak with Estaban and David Vidro, could it be possible that Juan and Jorge Vidro speak to him through his ID 200 phone. Caller ID 2 uses a cell phone to remain at Tower 29, where as Caller ID 97 uses his cell phone to stay at tower 22. This could suggest one person uses two cell phones at different locations. However, in GT Config Spaces we can see that Juan or Jorge would have to travel at 287.9 km/h to make some of these phone calls (Figure 8). Therefore 2 is not 97. 2 maybe be 137. Both share two out of the three same locations, speak to Ferdinando Catalano and are within a reasonable distance from each other such that all phone calls can be made at the locations they were made at (Figure 9). Further investigation is needed to make this claim.
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Figure 8: Caller ID can not be Caller ID 2 due to the time and space between the locations of outgoing calls. |
Figure 9: If caller 2 does use multiple phones. He may also be caller 137. |
A link analysis was performed on the main actors during Reorganization period in order to reveal any other central nodes (Figure 10). Based on the centrality between known figures it would seem that caller ID's 0 and 281 also play a role in network communication. ID 0 speaks to caller ID's 309, 306 and 3. Caller 281 may only speak to callers 137 and 309, but based on his movement patterns (Figure 11) he can be found at tower 29 several times throughout the observation period, where as caller 0 is not present at all. This suggests that caller ID 281 may take upon more of a leadership role where as 0's sporadic movement suggest groundwork activity.
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Figure 10: Caller ID's associated with 1,2,3 and 5 disassociate from one another at the end of the period where as 107, 200, 309,97 and 306 become or remain centralized. |
Figure 11: Movement patterns between caller 281 and 0 suggest a hierarchy of roles within the network. |